Global music revenues are projected to nearly double over the next decade despite slowing growth in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs Research’s latest Music in the Air report.
The industry generated $105bn in 2024, with revenues expected to approach $200bn by 2035. Analysts Eric Sheridan and Stephen Laszczyk said last year’s 6.2 per cent expansion was the weakest since the team began forecasting, down from a 15.6 per cent increase in 2023.
“This was due to a mix of structural, cyclical, and one-off factors,” the analysts wrote. “But we still think the industry has significant scope to increase in value, even if growth is slower than initially anticipated.”
Changing growth drivers
Sheridan and Laszczyk emphasised that “the drivers will be different from those over the last 5 or 10 years.” They pointed to new streaming markets, fresh monetisation models, the rise of video content, and a focus on superfans as the key areas of expansion.
The analysts highlighted “a blurring of lines between different forms,” noting that “we’re seeing more players push video content onto their platforms.” They also pointed to bundling strategies: “Streamers are also bundling audiobook and music subscriptions to merge those two audiences.”
AI and advertising outlook
Concerns over generative artificial intelligence have not yet materialised in the form of large volumes of AI-generated tracks flooding services. “But AI remains a key topic,” Sheridan and Laszczyk said. “What we’re seeing is a collaboration between music publishers and platforms to try to protect the interests of artists from the disruptions of AI.”
The report also revised down expectations for ad-supported streaming, now forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.7 per cent between 2025 and 2030, compared with 11.3 per cent previously. “That’s a reflection of cyclical pressure,” the analysts wrote. “Given macroeconomic concerns, we see slower growth for ads in the near term. The ad-supported revenue model will take time to improve—but it will happen.”
