Goldman Sachs’ October 2026 Music in the Air report 10th Anniversary
China and other fast-growing markets are expected to supply most of the new music streaming subscribers over the next decade, according to Goldman Sachs’s Music In The Air Report released on Friday October 16, 2026.
But here’s the interesting part.
These markets are bringing enormous audiences into the music industry, yet those audiences don’t necessarily generate the same revenue per listener as consumers in the United States or Europe.
And that’s one of the biggest challenges facing the global music business.
Goldman Sachs estimates that emerging markets could add more than 500 million paying music streaming subscribers by 2035, making them the main engine of global subscriber growth.
Think about what that means.
Hundreds of millions of people who currently listen to music for free could eventually get become paying subscribers. That’s an enormous opportunity for streaming platforms, record labels, publishers, and artists.
But attracting listeners is one thing. Getting them to pay consistently is another.
China: Huge Growth, but Growing Competition
China is particularly fascinating because it shows both sides of this opportunity.
Tencent Music has become very good at converting free listeners into paying subscribers.
Its paying ratio has increased dramatically over the years, from around 4% in 2018 to nearly 23% in 2025.
It means Tencent has learned how to generate more revenue from an audience it already has.
But now competition is intensifying.
One of the emerging challengers is Soda Music, which is attracting listeners through lower-cost music services and experimenting with AI-generated covers.
And this creates an interesting problem for established streaming platforms.
Imagine you’ve spent years convincing consumers to pay for music, only for another company to enter the market offering a cheaper alternative.
You might continue attracting subscribers, but the amount of money you earn from each subscriber could start declining.
That’s exactly the kind of pressure Goldman Sachs is highlighting in China.
Subscriber numbers can keep growing while average revenue per user falls.
And ultimately, that means audience growth doesn’t always translate into equivalent revenue growth.
Latin America: Local Music Is Creating Pricing Power
Now, Latin America tells a slightly different story.
Markets such as Brazil and Mexico are showing that consumers are becoming more willing to pay for music subscriptions.
Spotify has introduced price increases in these markets, and according to Goldman Sachs, those increases have helped improve revenue per subscriber without visibly disrupting subscriber growth.
It suggests that some emerging markets are moving beyond the early stage of simply attracting listeners.
They’re beginning to develop the ability to charge more for the music experience.
And local music plays a major role in that.
When listeners have access to the artists, genres, and cultural sounds they care about, streaming subscriptions become more valuable.
Latin American music has also become increasingly influential internationally.
So these markets are benefiting from two opportunities at once: growing domestic consumption and expanding global demand for their artists.
India: Millions of Listeners, but Few Paying Subscribers
India is another fascinating example.
The country has an enormous music streaming audience, but only a relatively small percentage of listeners actually pay for subscriptions.
According to figures cited in the Goldman Sachs report, India had approximately 178 million active music streaming users in 2025, but only around 14 million paying subscribers.
That’s roughly 8%.
More than nine out of ten active listeners weren’t paying for a music subscription.
For companies such as Spotify and YouTube Premium, that’s a huge untapped market.
But the challenge is finding the right pricing model.
You can’t necessarily charge consumers in India the same subscription prices you charge consumers in the United States.
Income levels are different, consumer expectations are different, and free alternatives remain widely available.
So streaming platforms have to find ways to make paid subscriptions attractive without pricing consumers out of the market.
That might mean more affordable plans, better premium features, or partnerships with telecommunications companies.
The opportunity is enormous, but monetization will take time.
What This Means for Artists: Grow at Home, Monetize Internationally
And here’s where this becomes particularly interesting for artists.
As music streaming expands across emerging markets, artists have more opportunities than ever to build audiences in their home countries.
But those domestic audiences might not generate substantial streaming revenue because subscription prices are relatively low.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the music has limited commercial value.
It means artists need to think differently about where their revenue comes from.
You can grow at home, but monetize internationally.
An artist might build a loyal following in Jamaica, Nigeria, India, or Brazil, but generate a significant portion of their streaming income from listeners in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, or Europe.
And that’s an important distinction.
Your home market can help establish your identity, your sound, and your cultural relevance.
But international audiences can provide additional opportunities for streaming revenue, touring, merchandise, publishing, and brand partnerships.
For Caribbean artists, particularly those working in reggae and dancehall, this is especially relevant.
Jamaica might be where the music originates and where the artist establishes cultural credibility.
But the international market can offer access to much larger audiences and stronger monetization opportunities.
And as digital distribution continues expanding, artists have more ways to reach those listeners directly.
The Bigger Picture
So when you put all of this together, Goldman Sachs is describing a global music industry entering a new phase.
For years, the biggest question was how many people streaming platforms could attract.
Now the question is becoming how much revenue those platforms can generate from the audiences they’ve already built.
China demonstrates the opportunities and challenges of converting free listeners into paying customers.
Latin America shows how stronger local music markets can support subscription price increases.
India illustrates the enormous potential that remains when millions of people listen to music but relatively few pay for it.
And across emerging markets, the challenge is essentially the same.
How do you turn massive music consumption into sustainable revenue without making music unaffordable?
That’s the balancing act for the next decade.
And for artists, there’s an equally important lesson.
Building an audience is no longer enough on its own. The real opportunity is understanding how to convert that audience into a sustainable business.
Because in today’s global music economy, where your music becomes popular and where it generates the most money don’t necessarily have to be the same place.
Grow at home. Build your audience globally. Monetize internationally.
That’s one of the most important opportunities emerging from the next decade of music industry growth.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Music in the Air: 10 Years On, October 15, 2026. The discussion follows the report’s analysis of emerging-market subscriber growth, streaming monetization, and China’s competitive landscape. Future growth figures are forecasts.
